Future Energy

Petrochemical export taxation as energy-industrial policy in Iran: a product-specific value-chain analysis

Amirali Saifoddin — 2026-08-14

As a hydrocarbon-rich economy, Iran faces an energy-policy challenge in deciding whether to export oil and gas feedstocks as basic petrochemical products or convert them into higher-value materials. Iran’s petrochemical exports remain concentrated in basic and intermediate products, while downstream exports are limited. Using a descriptive-analytical design, documentary analysis, financial scenario analysis, and a comparative policy case study, this article examines the evolution of Iran’s petrochemical tax and export-duty policy from 2021 to 2025. The findings show that the initial approach sought to reduce the attractiveness of exporting basic and intermediate products by removing tax exemptions or imposing export duties. Evidence from the quantitative analysis reveals a structural imbalance between export volumes of raw materials (US$11.24 billion) and upstream and intermediate petrochemicals (US$11.43 billion) and the exports of downstream industry, which stood at US$0.36 billion in 2018. Import volumes of downstream industry were about US$0.56 billion and thus exceeded its export volumes. Policy projections for the modified tariff system generated about US$200 million in revenue. Taxes and tariffs can only support value chain upgrading if there is downstream capacity, comparative advantage, market demand, technological capability, and justifiable economies of scale. A comparative assessment of urea, methanol, and polyethylene shows that a one-size-fits-all policy is not appropriate for all these products. Overall, urea was eliminated, methanol was encouraged, and polyethylene needs support. The study concludes that export duty policy should move towards a more precise, product-oriented, and value chain-based regulation.

Effect of Ni-additive on jute stick charcoal-mediated carbon anode of Li-ion batteries

Tauhidul Hossain — 2026-08-23

Li-ion batteries (LIBs) have gained popularity as a potential device for sustainable energy transition. Because of its simple and environmentally benign production, biomass-derived amorphous carbon is a viable anode for LIBs as a possible replacement for graphite. However, its performance is limited by structural deterioration and low conductivity. Therefore, developing low-cost biomass-derived carbon anodes with improved electrical conductivity and cycling stability is important for sustainable LIB applications. Here, slow pyrolysis has been used to produce amorphous carbon from jute stick charcoal. The jute sticks were pyrolyzed at 400 °C, and the structural characterization confirmed the successful formation of amorphous carbon with flake-like porous morphology. The resulting carbon was evaluated as an anode material in a full cell. After 500 cycles, this anode demonstrated a discharge capacity of 125.46 mAh/g and a Coulombic efficiency (CE) of 68.4% at 1C. In addition, Ni metal powder additives were added to improve cell performance. Ni considerably reduced the cell impedance and enhanced electrode conductivity. As a result, after 500 cycles, the Ni-added anode demonstrated improved performance with a discharge capacity of 148.02 mAh/g and a CE of 73% at 1C. Electrochemical investigations further indicated reduced cell resistance after Ni incorporation, demonstrating enhanced electronic conduction and interfacial charge-transfer kinetics.

Current perspectives on smart grid cybersecurity and critical infrastructure protection

Nilesh Jain — 2026-09-18

The increasing convergence of renewable energy sources, information and communication technology, Internet of Things devices, smart meters, and phasor measurement units has enhanced the efficiency, reliability, and real-time operation of Smart Grids. However, this interconnected cyber-physical infrastructure has also increased cybersecurity vulnerabilities and attack surfaces. This paper reviews AI/ML-based security approaches for Smart Grid cybersecurity and critical infrastructure protection, focusing on major threats such as False Data Injection Attacks, Denial-of-Service attacks, Man-in-the-Middle attacks, spoofing, malware, and malicious command injection. The study examines existing protection mechanisms, including authentication and access control, intrusion detection, attack mitigation, secure communication, data protection, and privacy preservation. The study further discusses cyber-physical system protection, resilience, incident response, continuous monitoring, network segmentation, and AI/ML-based security approaches. A review of recent research highlights advances in anomaly detection, trust management, multilayer security, and intelligent threat detection. However, challenges remain in scalability, real-time processing, interoperability, adaptive defense, limited datasets, and real-world validation. The findings emphasize the need for integrated, intelligent, scalable, and adaptive cybersecurity approaches to strengthen Smart Grid resilience, reliability, availability, and operational continuity.

Long-term dynamics and future trajectories of natural gas production: a global, regional, and Iranian assessment

Afshin Gholamalipour — 2026-10-11

Natural gas plays an important role in sustainable energy supply and future planning. This study examines trends in global natural gas production, Asia, the Middle East, and Iran, and outlines its outlook using several analytical methods. Annual data for the period 1970-2025 were examined using trend analysis and time series forecasting methods. The significance of trends was determined using the Mann–Kendall test, and the rate of change was determined using Sen’s slope estimator. Then, an ARIMA model was developed to forecast production up to 2035, and its accuracy was evaluated using RMSE, MAE, and MAPE criteria. The results showed that production increased in all four ranges and was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The Z-statistic values were between 9.69 and 10.83. Sen’s slope estimates showed annual increases in production in the world, Asia, the Middle East, and Iran of 594.60, 295.04, 145.48, and 50.39 TWh/year, respectively. The ARIMA forecast also indicated that this increase would continue until 2035. Global production would increase from 41,964.71 TWh in 2025 to about 48,159.54 TWh. Production in Asia, the Middle East, and Iran in 2035 was also predicted to be about 18,096.72, 9,348.25, and 3,305.26 TWh, respectively. MAPE values below 10% indicate the model's accuracy in representing historical production behavior. By examining trend significance, estimating growth rates, and forecasting, we can better understand long-term changes in natural gas production.

Physicochemical characterization and FTIR analysis of pyrolysis oil derived from waste tires

Lulu Gawhar — 2026-10-14

Waste tire pyrolysis has emerged as a promising thermochemical conversion technology for recovering valuable liquid fuels while addressing the environmental challenges associated with end-of-life tires. For this purpose, tire-derived fuel was pyrolyzed in a fixed-bed reactor at varying temperatures of 560 °C, 565 °C, 580 °C, 590 °C, and 600 °C. The maximum pyrolytic oil yield was achieved at 600 °C, producing approximately 45.56% liquid, 22.44% gas, and 32% solid residue. Increasing the temperature improved oil yield while reducing gas output. The physicochemical properties analyzed for the pyrolytic oil include calorific value, viscosity, density, flash point, fire point, and elemental composition. Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) analysis revealed various functional groups, including alkanes, alkenes, aromatics, and carbonyl compounds, indicating a complex hydrocarbon mixture. Thus, this study aims to produce tire pyrolysis oil (TPO) and assess its suitability as an alternative fuel for IC engines through yield analysis and fuel property characterization.