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Abstract

Based on Malaysia's National Energy Transition Roadmap, hydrogen is important to the country's energy transition. However, studies on potential green hydrogen applications in Peninsular Malaysia are scarce, particularly in gas turbine (GT) co-firing. This gap has shaped discussions around the economic and technological aspects of green hydrogen production and co-firing. Therefore, this paper focuses on the feasibility of green hydrogen co-firing in one of Malaysia's GTs, with a special emphasis on Peninsular Malaysia, the country's primary industrial hub, which houses most of the key GTs. The study uses a Monte Carlo model to evaluate the economic and technical factors affecting green hydrogen adoption, concentrating on three target years: 2023, 2030, and 2050, representing different stages of technological deployment and market adoption of electrolyzers. Actual GT data is used to calculate future green hydrogen demand based on the turbines' technology and the percentage of hydrogen co-firing they could accommodate. Scenario I for 2023 showed the widest Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) distribution, ranging from $3.54 to $16.82 per kg, indicating a high level of uncertainty. By 2030, the outlook improves significantly, with the conceptual co-firing system potentially obtaining an LCOH of $2.68 to $9.43 per kg. Looking ahead to 2050, the study predicts a promising future for green hydrogen co-firing, with the LCOH potentially dropping to $2.30 to $8.54 per kg, and a mode of $4.64 per kg. Sensitivity analysis also reveals shifting key cost drivers. In 2023, early-stage investments in electrolyzers are critical, while electricity prices become increasingly important in 2030 and 2050. Overall, three key cost drivers have been identified as having a significant effect on LCOH: electrolyzer power consumption, electricity price, and utilization rate, highlighting the need for industry and policymakers to concentrate on these factors when formulating new policy instruments for the green hydrogen co-firing initiative in Peninsular Malaysia's GTs.

Keywords

Green hydrogen Gas turbine Electrolyzer Power generation Decarbonization Malaysia

Article Details

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Rahman, M. N. . (2024). Techno-economic analysis of a green hydrogen-firing gas turbine in Malaysia via Monte Carlo simulations. Future Technology, 3(4), 25–41. Retrieved from https://fupubco.com/futech/article/view/210
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