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Vol. 4 No. 4 (2025): November 2025 Issue

Toward a 100% renewable energy future in Iceland: scenario analysis of geothermal, biofuel, and electric vehicle integration

Armita Fathi
School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Ahmadreza Abedkhani
School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Hossein Yousefi
School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Mahmood Abdoos
School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Helia Salaripoor
School of Energy Engineering and Sustainable Resources, College of Interdisciplinary Science and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Corresponding Author(s) : Hossein Yousefi

hosseinyousefi@ut.ac.ir

Future Energy, Vol. 4 No. 4 (2025): November 2025 Issue

Abstract

This study investigates the transition paths towards a 100% renewable energy system in Iceland through scenario analysis and simulation using the Energy PLAN software. Because of its unique geographical location and abundant geothermal resources, Iceland is a case study for renewable energy. In the present research, three primary scenarios are considered. The EV scenario is the substitution of fossil-fuel vehicles with EVs, which would imply that the proportion of renewable energy rises to 91.2% and CO₂ emission falls from 1.98 million tons in 2022 to 1.27 million tons by 2035. The Hybrid scenario, beyond the expansion of EVs, also includes the use of biofuels in industrial and maritime sectors, leading to an increase in the share of renewable energy to 96.6% and reducing CO₂ emissions down to 0.49 million tons. In contrast, the Business as Usual (BAU) scenario keeps the current system without structural changes, resulting in only a marginal increase in renewable energy share and an escalation of CO₂ emissions to 2.58 million tons. Alongside technical and environmental analysis, this study assesses the economic, social, and political aspects of the transition to a sustainable energy system. It highlights the importance of supportive policies, stronger regulations, and greater public awareness as key factors for success. Overall, the comprehensive insights provided by this research offer valuable guidance for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and enhance Iceland’s environmental performance.

Keywords

Renewable energy Energy transition Carbon emissions reduction
Fathi, Armita, Ahmadreza Abedkhani, Hossein Yousefi, Mahmood Abdoos, and Helia Salaripoor. 2025. “Toward a 100% Renewable Energy Future in Iceland: Scenario Analysis of Geothermal, Biofuel, and Electric Vehicle Integration”. Future Energy 4 (4):1-8. https://fupubco.com/fuen/article/view/457.
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