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Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): In Press

Socio-energetic stamina in photovoltaics: material security and distributed manufacturing potential of Kesterite (CZTSSe)

Tayfun Buke
Faculty of Technology, Mugla Sitki Kocman University, Mugla, Türkiye
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5662-5101
Coskun Firat
Energy Institute, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Türkiye
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2853-8940

Corresponding Author(s) : Coskun Firat

coskun.firat@itu.edu.tr

Future Energy, Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026): In Press

Abstract

Energy transitions face a materials paradox because solar resources are widely distributed, but photovoltaic systems require supply chains that operate from specific geographic locations and rely on certain thin-film technologies that use rare byproduct metals. The study investigates kesterite photovoltaics (Cu2ZnSn(S,Se)4; CZTSSe) as an energy solution for locations facing energy insecurity that require policies that go beyond cost-effective electricity to include supply security, manufacturing access, and dependable service delivery. We develop a multi-criteria assessment combining (i) indicators of mineral scarcity and refining concentration, (ii) benchmarked manufacturing capital intensity with scale adjustment, and (iii) scenario-based techno-economic analysis that incorporates grid unreliability through avoided outage costs (VoLL). Refining concentration for indium and gallium is extreme (HHI > 6,000), whereas key CZTSSe constituents exhibit substantially lower concentration. A 30 TW deployment stress test indicates that large-scale CIGS expansion faces severe indium constraints even under optimistic recycling, while for CZTSSe, the binding concern shifts toward tin reserve definitions, reserve growth, and end-of-life recovery for bulk metals. We introduce socio-energetic stamina as a development-relevant lens for comparing PV options by material security, manufacturability, and operational resilience, clarifying where efficiency-first evaluation can misrank technologies when reliability and import dependence shape real-world energy access outcomes.

Keywords

Energy justice Energy sovereignty Socio-energetic stamina Distributed manufacturing Kesterite (CZTSSe)
Buke, Tayfun, and Coskun Firat. 2026. “Socio-Energetic Stamina in Photovoltaics: Material Security and Distributed Manufacturing Potential of Kesterite (CZTSSe)”. Future Energy 5 (2):30-46. https://fupubco.com/fuen/article/view/876.
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